| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Michigan | 17-34 | 1393.9 | +51.5 | 1445.4 | 4.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Idaho State | 32-22 | 1445.4 | -5.1 | 1440.3 | 72.2% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | UCLA | 35-10 | 1440.3 | +126.5 | 1566.8 | 29.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 38-20 | 1562.4 | +0.9 | 1563.3 | 85.2% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | San José State | 28-35 | 1563.3 | -7.2 | 1556.1 | 61.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Boise State | 25-41 | 1556.1 | -8.5 | 1547.6 | 25.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Nevada | 24-22 | 1547.6 | -19.8 | 1527.8 | 78.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Utah State | 33-14 | 1527.8 | +27.6 | 1555.4 | 47.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UNLV | 40-35 | 1555.4 | +4.9 | 1560.3 | 41.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Colorado State | 20-17 | 1564.8 | -19.6 | 1545.2 | 73.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Air Force | 20-3 | 1545.2 | +35.8 | 1581.0 | 54.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | San Diego State | 23-17 | 1581.0 | +4.0 | 1585.0 | 39.0% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | Minnesota | 17-20 | 1573.9 | +5.8 | 1579.7 | 28.6% |