| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Central Michigan | 38-7 | 1667.0 | -80.6 | 1586.3 | 90.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Mercyhurst | 70-7 | 1586.3 | +13.6 | 1599.9 | 99.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Oklahoma | 6-14 | 1599.9 | +14.0 | 1613.9 | 14.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | New Mexico State | 42-18 | 1613.9 | -13.5 | 1600.4 | 90.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | UTEP | 61-7 | 1600.4 | +47.7 | 1648.1 | 93.5% |